Why North won’t vote for Jonathan

Why North won’t vote for Jonathan

The claim that President Goodluck Jonathan breached the agreement to serve for only one term may affect his chances in the North at the general election. Assistant Editor LEKE SALAUDEEN examines the controversy and its implication for the President’s performance at the poll.

In spite of the Court of Appeal judgment that President Goodluck Jonathan is qualified to contest the general elections, northern leaders have continued to insist that he signed an agreement with them to serve for only one term and that his conduct amounts to betrayal. The League of Arewa Professionals and Businessmen echoed this view when it said the court ruling has not absolved the President of betraying the North by failing to keep the alleged promise.

According to the league, “a leader is not supposed to vacillate or change at will after he had already given his words on certain issues.” It added: “Nigerians need somebody who will tell them the truth; someone who will take a decision and stand by it.  But, Nigerians are no fools. When a former American President lied to Americans, he apologised to them publicly. Jonathan has reneged on his agreement with the North; we shall pay him back on March 28. The court judgment cannot relief him of the moral burden that will continue to haunt him for life.”

Second Republic politician and Convener of the Coalition of Northern Politicians, Academics, Professionals and Businessmen, Dr. Junaid Muhammed, agrees. He described the decision of Jonathan to seek re-election, as a betrayal of his allies from the North. “It proves beyond all reasonable doubts that he is not a gentleman in politics. Now that he is running, I don’t see him winning the election. He can’t say anything he has done to justify being re-elected and he cannot deny the fact that we are arguing over the promises and agreements he entered into by him; not only with the party (PDP) or the North, but other parts of the country,” Junaid said.

The struggle for power shift to the north started in 2006 when the Northern Union (NU) led by the late Dr Olusola Saraki toured the country to woo the Nigeria’s political stakeholders in the Southwest, South-East and Southsouth to allow a northerner to succeed former President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2007. The union literally took the battle for power shift to Obasanjo on August 9, 2006, for his endorsement. The argument of the northern elites at that time was the beginning of the current democratic dispensation in 1999 a northerner has not ruled the country.

Even though there was no provision for zoning or power rotation in the 1999 Constitution, but nothing stops a political party from zoning elective offices to enhance unity and ensure that all the zones have a sense of belonging. That explains why Obasanjo settled for the late, Katsina-born Umaru Musa Yar’Adua as the PDP presidential candidate in 2007. Analysts believe there was an agreement or an understanding among the political stakeholders especially within the PDP in 1999 to concede power to the North at the end of Obasanjo’s tenure. This is owing to the fact Obasanjo owes his emergence as Nigeria’s President in 1999 to the support of northern leaders.

The breached agreement

There was power shift to the North in 2007, as envisaged. But, it could not run full circle because the beneficiary, President Umaru Yar’Adua, died midway into his first term in 2010. Jonathan, who was then Vice President, assumed power as acting President, following the declaration of the “Doctrine of Necessity” by the Senate, when it became obvious that Yar’Adua was incapacitated. He was eventually sworn-in as the substantive president when he died.

In 2011, power shift was on the agenda, after Jonathan completed Yar’Adua’s tenure. But, he was allowed to contest the primary, which he eventually won, following a truce brokered by Obasanjo with the northern governors, who were opposed to his candidature. The governors had argued that it will be logical for another northerner to emerge as party’s candidate, so that the North could complete its eight years.

Initially, PDP governors, particularly those from the North, were opposed to Jonathan’s bid to contest the party’s presidential primary. They held up the party’s National Executive Committee meeting for days. When it was learnt that Jonathan was going to declare for the 2011 presidential election, the governors met to deliberate on the matter. One of the governors present at the meeting said: “Some of us said given the circumstances of the death of President Yar’Adua and given the PDP zoning arrangement, it was expected that the position would be conceded to North. At that discussion it was agreed that Jonathan would serve only one term of four years. Even when Jonathan went to Kampala, in Uganda, he also said he was going to serve a single term. It was on the basis of that agreement that the northern governors, especially those of the ruling PDP, supported the President during the 2011 presidential election, a decision that offended the sensibilities of majority of the people of the region.”

Obasanjo’s testimony

Again former President Obasanjo, who was a staunch supporter of Jonathan’s candidacy in 2011 and who was the Chairman of the party’s Board of Trustees, alluded to the one-term agreement at the PDP convention/presidential primary of January 15, 2011 at the Eagle Square, Abuja. He said: “We are impressed with the report that Dr. Goodluck Jonathan has already taken a unique and unprecedented step of declaring that he would only want to be a one-term President. If so, whether he knows it or not, that is a sacrifice and it is statesmanly. Rather than vilify him and pull him down, we as a party should applaud and commend him and Nigerians should reward and venerate him.

“Let us encourage him to take more good steps to achieve what needs to be achieved for this country by voting for him in landslide victory as the first elected President of Nigeria on basis of our common Nigerian identity and for the purpose of actualising the Nigerian dream.”

In spite of the stiff opposition to Jonathan’s second term bid, Jonathan muscled his way through and eventually emerged as the sole candidate for 2015 presidential election.

Attempt to polarise the North

Jonathan’s gambit was to divide the North, by by luring some leaders of the Middle Belt to support his re-election bid. This played out last year when leaders from the South-south visited Jonathan and asked him to seek re-election in 2015. That in itself is not surprising considering the fact that the President is from the zone. However, what stands out in that visit was the inclusion of leaders from the Middle Belt, who also urged the president to run for a second term.

The visit, according to Chief Edwin Clark, was under the aegis of Congress for Equity and Change and includes among others, the Middle Belt leaders such as former Military Governor of Katsina State, General Lawrence Onaja, Senators Ameh Ebute and John Wash Pam. Onoja and Pam are not just northerners, but strong members of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), a northern socio-cultural forum that speaks out for the region, and the Northern Elders Forum, which is at the forefront of ensuring that power returns to the North.

Predictably, the visit did not go down well with some northern leaders, who considered it a betrayal of those working for the strengthening of the North’s unity and an indictment on the decades-old slogan of ‘One North, One People!’ The visit also influenced the resurgence of the term ‘core-north’ which includes the Northwest, the Northeast and the fringe North in the Northcentral, populated largely by minority ethnic groups.

The decision of the Middle Belt was premised on the fact that Jonathan comes from a minority tribe like them. But, the northern political establishment was not pleased by the development. They saw the Middle Belt move as a betrayal, because the formation of a separate political union has been a recurring decimal in the North’s quest to speak and act in unison.

In its reaction to the Middle Belt/Southsouth alliance, the Northern Elders Forum, through its spokesman, Professor Ango Abdullahi, said it is a thing of concern to the North in view of the region’s desire to return to power in 2015.

According to him, “part of the reasons Clark and others were asking President Jonathan to re-contest is simply because of the alliance that the Southsouth and the Middle Belt have entered into. But, we will wait and see whether the alliance of minorities will be sufficient to see him through; when the votes are counted, will be enough to secure victory for the President?

“The North is trying to achieve this unity, not on the basis of selfishness, but on the basis of right and objectivity, and those who go into alliance with others will still find out that the North will still be here and that the interest of the Middle Belt is best secured within the North.”

On the reason for the Middle Belt’s assertiveness, which invariably polarises the North, Prof. Ango said: “If you look at the reasons they are giving, it can’t go beyond certain sentiment that has to do with religion rather than anything else. And if that sentiment is purely based on religion, then that alliance is bound to fail.”

The Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) on the other hand, was more subtle in its reaction to the alliance when it accused the Middle Belt leaders romancing with President Jonathan of creating the impression that the North is divided. It however noted that people have the right to associate, hold opinions and change their minds.

“Members of ACF have the right to change their minds, including decamping across political parties. And that is why the change of mind which manifested during the elections into the Nigerian Governors Forum should not be allowed to factionalise both the Nigerian Governors Forum and Northern State Governors Forum the way they have been factionalised,” ACF said.

A Kaduna-based lawyer, Atiku Mohammed, said politics of ethnic and religious division will not make Jonathan win the presidential election. He cannot win in all the states in the Middle Belt with a voting population of 7.6 million. Can he win without the votes from Northwest and Northeast?

Mohammed said with the voting population of 18.9 million in the Northwest and the Northeast’s 10 million, the two zones are not a push-over. “The voting population is sophisticated and huge. No politician of worth will turn his eyes against the zone. The figure speaks volumes about the potency and electoral numerical strength of the zones,” he stated.

Analysts say the Middle Belt has always differed with the core North politically for a long time. For instance, the region was reluctant to accept former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as the North’s consensus presidential candidate in the 2011. This was part of what fuelled the current division in the ranks of northern politicians.

“Even though the North has been able to dictate, to a larger extent, political and socio-economic happening in the region, the Middle Belt has also not relented in its constant sniping at northern unity and with each passing year, the Middle Belt has continued to fine-tune its quest for freedom.

“With the presidential elections approaching, the North, more than any other time in its existence, needs to accommodate the Middle Belt. It should address all perceived and assumed differences; unite all groups so it can fully approach its quest for power shift in without internal distraction.”

Hausa/Fulani, Ndigbo, others endorse Ambode

It is not so much of a walk in the park as it is a long, hard haul to the top with a man who looks set, perhaps destined, to becoming the next governor of Lagos State. I am talking about Akinwunmi Ambode, the 51-year-old chartered accountant who is contesting as the Lagos State governorship on the platform of the All Progressive Congress (APC) come April 11, 2015.

This is an account of a volunteer who had a ring-side view of this amiable candidate’s busy schedule last Saturday. And what a difference that day made in accentuating the point that this is a candidate who would leave no stone unturned in reaching out to every stakeholder in Lagos State with his message of continuity and sustainability. His body language and his remarks at each occasion revealed why he is the ideal candidate that is arguably the most qualified and better prepared at this period to continue with the legacy of successes that Lagos State has been witnessing in the past 15 years.

The day started with the biggest revelation. The Igbos, contrary to insinuations, are indeed behind the candidacy of the APC candidates and are not averse to the type of progressive ideology that the ruling party in Lagos State preaches. And so the day began with a grand rally at Onikan Stadium, where a full house of professionals, elders, women, traders, youths and students – all of Igbo extraction and based in Lagos State – trooped out to unequivocally make their stand known: they were out to endorse the Buhari-Osinbajo team for the Presidential election as well as the Ambode-Adebule team for Lagos State governorship.

It was their show, the Igbos in Lagos. Funded and organized by them to express their position. And although the rally had in attendance key APC leaders and candidates like Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, the national leader of the party with his wife, Oluremi; Ambode and his running mate, Dr. Oluranti Adebule and several other candidates of the party, it was still a platform decidedly mounted to demonstrate where the Igbos stand in the forthcoming election.

It was a necessary and commendable stand to make at this time when endorsement of certain candidates has become desperate and dollarized. Anybody who claims to be on your side ought to be able to stand up and be counted for you. This is what the Igbos have done, just like the Arewa people did last month at the same venue, declaring in one voice that no amount of last-minute transactional overtures would make them vote against their conscience.

This principled stand did not escape Ambode in his remarks. By that rally, the Igbos have reciprocated the good gesture of the successive administration in Lagos, a state where they have kept a commissioner’s slot for several years and where one of their own has been the official spokesperson of the party for many years. The next four years will witness more cordial relationship between the Lagos State government and the Igbo whose contribution to the commerce and fortunes of the state is well acknowledged, Ambode said clearly. His promise was that in his administration, if elected next month, no one will be discriminated against on the basis of tribe, religion or creed, while also promising an improvement in the business environment of the state.

The Arewas were next and this Epe-born technocrat is showing no sense of fatigue or irritation even though he had been out the previous night till the wee hours of the morning attending a dinner meeting with all the aspirants who contested the party’s slot with his last December. The meeting with the Hausa leaders in Lagos was as strategic as the Igbo rally. The non-indigenes’ votes in the state, said to be between 35 and 40 per cent of the total registered voters is a voting bloc that cannot be ignored. Both the Igbo and the Arewa are said to account for the largest chunk of that total.

Warm welcome and a promise of total support for his continuity agenda awaited Ambode from the Sarkin Hausa and the entire Arewa community, when Ambode’s campaign train arrived in Yaba. How can a candidate be so blessed in one day, getting the endorsement of both the Igbo and the Arewa in Lagos the same day, two weeks to the Presidential elections and four weeks to the governorship poll? To these ‘non-indegene Lagosians,’ apart from his own sterling qualities as a well-read, and well-experienced Public Finance expert, Ambode is reaping the fruits of the labour that his party, the APC, has sown in the past 15 years in Lagos.

While the federal government struggles to deliver on its promises and is adjudged to have failed in the key areas of national security, accountability, power, oil and gas and in provision of social infrastructure, thereby making the desire for change at the centre a necessity, Lagos State on the other hand has been exemplary in how to grow Internally Generated Revenue and deliver on promises, thereby making the state attractive not just to indigenes of other states but to foreigners as well.

Such a working state, the Igbo and Arewa communities are unanimous in their verdict, deserves the services of a technocrat who has the requisite experience, who understands the workings of government and who was part of the painstaking effort to grow the finances of the state in continuing with the good works of the incumbent governor. In their wisdom, that man is Akinwunmi Ambode, the University of Lagos-trained Chartered Accountant who spent 27 years of meritorious service in the Lagos State Civil Service, rising to become the Auditor General for Local Governments and later as Accountant General/Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Finance.

But Ambode was not done on that interesting day. And he chose a community in dire need of government attention as his next point of call. Makoko, next on the schedule, provided a platform for the governorship candidate to hear first-hand the yearnings of that community and to address a town hall meeting that sought to reassure on the type of change they should expect in the next four years. While slums and shanties may be an unfortunate feature of most mega-cities in the world, due to inadequacy of resources, Makoko, from Ambode’s assurance, will witness a true transformation in the new dispensation. “The Lagos of our dream is here. It is a Lagos that will work for everybody. We will build on the achievements of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and Governor Babatunde Fashola administrations. We are coming to consolidate on those achievements and Makoko will not be left out in this new dawn,” said.

If it is about roads, for instance, Ambode was confident that his Project 20-20-57 would come to the rescue of localities like Makoko. What this project means is that if elected, Ambode’s government, would have minimum of 20 roads and 20 streetlights constructed in each of the 57 local councils each year. “With this template, more than four thousand roads would have been completed across all the local governments and council areas in Lagos in four years.”

For a man whose selfless disposition is widely acknowledged, Ambode exudes real passion about his desire to serve as the governor of this prosperous state. His vision is clear and he has an infectious way of communicating it to the people. “We seek a clean, safe and prosperous Lagos, where justice and equity shall reign,” he reiterated at each function. And because he is real and demonstrably amiable, Lagosians, just like the band of hundreds of volunteers that have enlisted to his cause, believe him.

He did not end that memorable Saturday without looking in at the Ikosi residence of Hon. Tunde Salau, who passed on last week. Touching words of condolence poured out from his pen, describing the departed as a strong pillar of support… a seasoned politician and leader. May your story never end.” He had more kind words to the family of the departed also.

Campaigning with Ambode was like a long cruise, in which you hardly feel the strain. So it can be said of last Saturday, like the great American jazz singer once sang: what a difference a day makes, and the difference is Ambode.

Imo PDP leaders decamp to APC

The re-election bid of the Imo State Governor, Rochas Okorocha, Thursday received a significant boost with the dumping of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) by political leaders in the state and his endorsement by major political groups from the three senatorial zones of the state.

The influential political groups from Orlu, Okgwe and Owerri zones, known as the Coalition of Imo Mainstream Politicians for Good Governance, are made up of the Orlu Political Consultative Assembly (OPOCA), Owerri Zone Mandate Group and the Okigwe Political Leaders Congress.

The Coalition during a press conference in Owerri, the Imo State capital, said that it decided to dump the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) for the All Progressives Congress (APC) as a result of the Governor’s sterling performance and the irredeemable corruption in the PDP.

In a statement jointly signed by the Coordinator of the Coalition of Imo Mainstream Politicians for Good Governance, Chief Rex Anunobi, also known as Sokom, the National President of OPOCA, Dr. Samfo Nwankwo and the President General, Owerri Zone Mandate, Dr. Vitalis Ajumbe and the President Okigwe Political Leaders Forum, Dr. Kelechi Okpaleke, the group maintained that “the APC is the only hope for a truly democratic and corruption free Nigeria”.

The political leaders further disclosed that they were inspired to join the APC because of the unprecedented achievements recorded by the Okorocha’s administration within a short time in office, adding that “the Governor had dazed his critics by the successful implementation of the free education programme, the construction of 27 new general hospitals across the 27 Local Government Areas of the State, the construction of 15 kilometer rural roads in all the LGAs”.

They also added that the APC led administration in the state; unlike previous administrations has spread development to all the nook and crannies of the state, especially the rural areas that were hitherto abandoned.

They also dismissed other political parties in the governorship race, stating that the status of their governorship candidates is not yet clear as they are still locked in legal battle, “the PDP and APGA are yet to have valid governorship candidates as they are still in court”.

The Coalition, further accused the PDP of planning to continue its “share the money syndrome” alleging that the governorship candidate of the party has promised aspirants who lost the governorship primaries a N35 billion refund when he gets to power.

They promised to mobilize Imo people from the three zones to vote Governor Okorocha “because he has done Imo State proud with his performance. Imo people need the best. Imo people deserve the best and the best is Governor Okorocha.”