PDP…what next after defeat?

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) may face some adjustment difficulties in the course of its transition from a ruling party to the opposition. Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the challenges that will confront the party in the post-Jonathan period.

Power is transient and no condition is permanent in life. Few years ago, the former Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Prince Vincent Ogbulafor, was basking in the euphoria of power. Describing the ruling party as the largest in Africa, he said its sheer national spread, its formidable structure and the number of governors, ministers, legislators and local government chairmen it has produced would make it indispensable. In fact, he boasted that the PDP will rule Nigeria for the next 60 years.

Little did the former Minister of National Planning and other party leaders guess that the eclipse of the octopus was near. On Tuesday, the curtain was drawn on the PDP’s dominance of the national politics. The main opposition party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), which was derided by the power barons at its inception, became the PDP’s albatross at the presidential election. The power of incumbency crumbled irretrievably as former military Head of State, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, defeated the PDP’s candidate, President Goodluck Jonathan, at the historic election. For the ruling party, the journey of 16 years ended abruptly. So were the bravado, the acts of perfidy and arrogance of power. In distress, the party leader summoned the rare courage to concede victory to the victor, urging his party men to take heart.

For now, the ruling party is down. The outcome of the presidential poll may have thrown spanner into its permutations, ahead of the governorship and House of Assembly elections. According to reports, unlike APC candidates, PDP flag bearers now perceive themselves as orphans as the government apparatus, which were usually deployed to favour them, can only be used for polls with great caution. The Army, the police and other security agencies, who are now gazing at May 29 handover date, would defer to the PDP, but also in utter sensitivity to the imminent liquidation of the PDP influence at the centre in post-Jonathan period.

The handwriting was bold on the wall. But, it was ignored because power was intoxicating.  According to observers, three factors led to the downfall of the ruling party. The first is the arrogance of power by the non-performing PDP-led administration. The second is that the party has been addicted to crisis, which ultimately led to its ultimate decimation. The third is that reconciliation in the PDP always paled into a shallow step, repeated window dressing and a game plan orchestrated to make it appear to the gullible that the party could undergo a genuine rebirth. Indeed, a proper dialogue was always elusive.

In 1998/99, PDP appeared on the horizon as the party to beat. It had a solid foundation. Its founding fathers were giants of history. Its membership at its inception was a mixed grill of conservative and progressive curators. These frontline politicians came from “G-34,” which stood shoulder to shoulder with the military during the protracted transition programmes of former military President Ibrahim Babangida and Gen. Sani Abacha, the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM), which continued to wax stronger after the demise of its leader, Major-Gen. Sheu Yar’Adua, chieftains of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the National Republican Convention (NRC), and military apologists in the ‘five fingers of a leprous hand’ encouraged by Abacha, and other new breed politicians. Thus, it was an association of strange bed fellows.

The PDP manifesto was said to have been written by the Cicero of Esa-Oke, the late Chief Bola Ige, who departed from the fold to form the Alliance for Democracy (AD), along with other Afenifere/National Democratic  Coalition (NADECO) leaders, promoters of the Eastern Mandate Union (EMU), a section of the pro-democracy movement,  and other like minds from the six geo-political zones. PDP has not been an ideological party. But, it has two distinct features. It is a large party with taproots across the country. Therefore, the platform is not devoid of a national outlook. Also, in  its constitution, rotational principle or presidential zoning is entrenched. Thus, when it was obvious that the doctrine would be violated, ahead of the recent poll, hell was let loose. The party was torn apart by a war of attrition.

But, its problematic journey into the future has been laced with a catalogue of crises, despite its electoral successes. The platform has suffered from self-inflicted wounds arising from its aversion for internal democracy, dictatorial leadership, presidential pressure on the party structures, and politics of exclusion at the federal and state levels.

Late elder statesman Chief Solomon Lar was the party’s pioneer National Chairman. He took over from the interim chairman, the late Senator Sunday Awoniyi, the Aro of Mopa. In 1999, the acclaimed largest party in Africa won federal and state elections without massive rigging. Under the late Lar, the PDP was a promising platform. The party was sensitive to the protracted agitation for power shift to the Southwest, which climaxed in the wake of the annulment of the historic June 12, 1993 presidential election won by the SDP candidate, the late Chief Moshood Abiola, a Yoruba. However, despite the large number of presidential materials in the party, none was considered suitable for the highest office. The retired Generals connived with military lackeys in the party to woo Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo, who was not a member of the party, to run for the Presidency. When the former military leader won the 1999 elections, the first step he took was to re-create the party in his own image. The pioneer chairman,  was shoved aside.

Lar was a celebrated democrat. Obasanjo is a retired soldier, who could not easily adjust to the democratic civilian life. The transition from soldering to politics was difficult for the old soldier, who had mastered the hierarchical military dictatorial order and command.  His first move was to secure the title of the ‘National Leader’ of the PDP. Few months after he assumed office, he agitated for the change of baton at the party’s national secretariat. That was necessary to limit the party’s influence on presidential activities. It was clear that Lar, the former Police Affairs minister, had to bow out honourably. He spent barely a year in office.

Under the late Lar, crises were minimal and the party was supreme. One of his aides, Dr Solomon Dalung, a lawyer, recalled that trouble started when Obasanjo  became the President and the party’s national leader.”When Obasanjo came in, being an African General, he came in with the Machiavellian theory of dispensing with whosoever that might have made him king because it was only him who knows the intrigues that brought him to power. He applied this to Lar”, he said.

After Lar left office, there was a high turn-over of national chairmen. The position was zoned to the Northcentral geo-political zone.  Awoniyi, and Chief Barnabas Gemade, former member of the Interim National Government (ING) led by Chief Ernest Shonekan vied for the chairmanship. Awoniyi, a Yoruba, was from Kogi State. Gemade hails from Benue State. Other contestants-Senator Ahmadu Ali, Yahaya Kwande, and Sule Usman from Kogi State-were on the fringe.

Awoniyi, who had often described himself as a Yoruba-Northerner, got the shock of his life when Obasanjo from Ogun State declared that, in the PDP, Yoruba could not produce the President and the National Chairman as the same time. Awoniyi was a tough politician. If he was made the National Chairman, he could challenge Obasanjo, if he undermined the party leadership. But, he was harassed out of the party. On his way out, he lamented the collapse of the  due process in the party and the derailment of the vision of its founding fathers. The former Private Secretary to Sardauna Ahmadu Bello, said that he was leaving the party of sinners.

In a bid to assert himself, Lar’s successor, Gemade, also ran into problem. He had inherited a party ruptured by post-presidential primaries. The aspirants, former Vice President Alex Ekweme and former Kano State Governor Abubakar Rimi, who lost the ticket to Obasanjo, were bitter. Crisis was also  brewing at the state chapters because of the presidential directive that the pioneer chairmen should hand over to new officers favoured by the National Party Leader. It was also evident that the idea of the national party caucus could not be adopted by the PDP.

Gemade  wanted to run the affairs of the party as a democrat.  But he was handicapped. The National Chairman complained that certain powerful forces in the party were making unreasonable and unethical demands from his office. To him, the meddlesomeness was uncalled for. A personality crisis broke out between Obasanjo, the power-loaded National Party Leader, and the National Chairman. Efforts by the politician from Benue to secure a second term was resisted by the former President. As he bowed out in frustration, he cursed the party, saying that the fate that will befell his successors would be worse than his experience. When the tenure of the National Executive Committee (NEC) was extended by one year, there was disagreement over whether Gemade could benefit. Crisis broke out. Amid the crisis,  he announced the suspension of Chief Tony Anenih, the powerful Works Minister. It became his undoing. Although he lifted the suspension, Gemade’s days as chairman were numbered. He was forced out of office. Reflecting on his tenure, he said: “The way I saw the situation in the party that time, it was clear to me that the mindset of the people who had the party in their control and who had the government in their control that time was such that the meddlesomeness that we were experiencing as the leadership of the party would not change”.

Gemade was succeeded by Second Republic Minister of Communications Chief Audu Ogbeh. Other aspirants were edged out. It was very hard for the chairman to blend with Obasanjo. He felt that the President was elected to run the country and the chairman, in consultation with him, was elected by the party members to run the party. Ogbeh became the chairman as the party was preparing for the 2003 elections. The party was in turmoil. The state chapters were crisis-ridden and the divisions had weakened the fold. In Anambra State, the governor, Dr. Chris Ngige, was abducted. The report of the reconciliation panel headed by Chief Tunde Osunrinde from Ogun State, which recommended the distribution of party offices among the Lagos PDP caucuses, was not implemented. In Osun State,  Otunba Iyiola Omisore, a defector from the Alliance for Democracy (AD) to PDP, was standing trial for an alleged involvement in the murder of the slain Attorney-General and Minister of Justice, Ige.  Ogbeh counselled that that he should not be made the senatorial candidate for Ife/Ijesa District to preserve the image of the party. The President disagreed. Some party leaders supported him, explaining that, since Omisore had not been found guilty, he can contest while still in the custody. The parting of ways became imminent between Obasanjo and Ogbeh, when he publicly advised the President to pay more attention to the sliding economy and the cries of the populace for improved welfare. The former President took exception to washing the administration’s linen in the public. He went vulgar, alleging that Ogbeh had made much money after he emerged as the chairman. The chairman was harassed and cajoled to visit the Aso Rock, where Obasanjo demanded for his resignation, ahead of the expiration of his tenure.

Ogbeh was succeeded by the former Federal Commissioner for Education, Dr Ahmadu Ali of the ‘Ali Must Go fame’.  He was the only chairman who enjoyed harmonious relationship with Obasanjo. Both of them are retired soldiers. Under his leadership, the crisis between Obasanjo and Atiku got to a peak. An administrative panel was set up to investigate Abubakar’s activities in government. It was also clear that the PDP would not organise democratic presidential primaries. Atiku and his supporters left the PDP for the defunct Action Congress (AC), where he emerged  as the presidential candidate in 2007. But he lost to the late President Umaru Yar’Adua at the poll.

In 2008, Yar’Adua set up a reconciliation committee headed by Ekwueme. His goal was to bring back the aggrieved members who had deserted the party. But, the work of the committee was sabotaged by some forces in the party. Its report was not implemented. Following the same pattern, the report of another panel headed by Gen. Ike Nwachukwju (rtd), was thrown into the dustbin.

Also, the pre-national convention rift between former Governor Sam Egwu, who was backed by Obasanjo, and former Senate President Ayim Pius Ayim torn the party apart. A dark horse, Prince Vincent Ogbulafor, emerged as the national chairman. In 2010, a corruption case against Ogbulafor was exhumed. He was forced to resign from office. His successor, Okwesilieze Nwodo, the former National Secretary, also had a turbulent tenure. He was locked in a protracted battle with Governor Sullivan Chime over the imposition of candidates for elections. At the PDP  primaries in 2011, Nwodo was consumed by the crisis. Nwodo’s deputy,  Dr.Haliru Bello, became the acting chairman. When he was appointed as minister, the national secretary, Alhaji Kawu Baraje, became the acting chairman.

The next national convention was fixed for March, 2012. The competing forces were in hot competition for the party leadership. But, President Jonathan wanted to impose his candidate, Alhaji bamanga Tukur. He had his way, But, Tukur was consumed by crisis that started before he was imposed on the party. The zonal congresses and national convention were rancorous. When the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) report came, it was discovered that 16 national officers were elected without following the laid down rules. They were advised to step down. But, Gen. Olagunsoye Oyinlola, whose election as the National Secretary was not faulted, was not recalled from suspension.

The relationship between Obasanjo and Dr. Jonathan later turned sour. Irked by his handling of party affairs and governance, Obasanjo wrote a letter to him, warning that disaster was looming. The crisis that had torn the party apart was festering. In Rivers State, there was turmoil. The President and Governor Rotimi Amaechi, had parted ways. The crisis led to the split in the Nigerian Governor’s Forum (NGF). Although Amaechi won the NGF’s election, the factional chairman, Plateau State Governor Jonah Jang, was recognised by the Presidency. Amaechi scored 19 votes. Jang got 16. The Rivers State governor was suspended from the party. Later, Governor Aliyu Wamakko of Sokoto State was also suspended. But the Northwest PDP rallied round Wamakko, who had called for the resignation of Tukur. The suspension slammed on him was lifted. But ,Amaechi’s suspension was not lifted. Other anti-Tukur governors-Admiral Muritala Nyako (Adamawa), Alhaji Sule Lamido (Jigawa), Alhaji Musa Kwakwanso (Kano) and Dr. Babangida Aliyu (Niger) could not be touched. The reconciliation shuttles by the Board of Trustees (BoT) Chairman, Chief Tony Anenih, Tukur and Bayelsa State Governor Seriake Dickson, failed to reconcile the aggrieved members and the national leadership.

As the party wobbled on in crisis, it was also preparing for a national convention. Oyinlola, whose election as the national secretary was not voided by the INEC, called for his reinstatement. Delegates from Rivers, Adamawa, Anambra and Nasarawa alleged deliberate exclusion from the convention. Amid the convention, the aggrieved governors and party chieftains walked out. At the Shehu Yar’Adua Centre, Abuja, they set up a parallel NEC. When reconciliation finally collapsed, Kwankwaso, Amaechi, Bukola Saraki, Baraje, Oni, Oyinlola and Adamu Abdullahi defected to the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). The ACN later fused into the APC along with the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and a section of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). Also, last month, Obasanjo left the party.

Following the mass defection, the ruling party became a ghost of itself. Its ex-members fired shots at it from outside. Ahead of the presidential poll, it has become a discredited platform. Cries of despondency arising from the poor performance of the President in nearly all sectors created an image problem for the PDP. Although the party employed other tactics, including financial inducement and serious appeal to ethno-religious cleavages, the strategies collapsed like a pack of cards.

According to analysts, PDP won power and loomed large on the polity. But, it failed to manage its achievements properly. Critics believe that its legacies, more or less, included its subscription to democratic governorship and parliamentary primaries, when there was no alternative. But, some commentators have also described the PDP as a nest of killers and rigging machine.

As from May 29, PDP will experience an unprecedented decline in power and influence. There will be a leadership vacuum. To move forward, it will require a dynamic, courageous and determined leadership to steer its affairs. Since it will be left in the cold, playing the role of an opposition will require much adjustment. Top leaders may trade blames over the circumstances leading to the colossal electoral defeat. Party funding may become hectic as traditional financiers in the business world may swift allegiance because their focus is return on investment. Since a tradition of reconciliation and crisis resolution is lacking, any crisis may further weaken the platform. party chieftains who may not be ready to weather the storm and stress being in the opposition may defect to the APC in droves.

Indeed, this is not the best of times for the PDP.